The Communist Party of China is meeting for its next five-year plan

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and the country’s top leaders, known as the Central Committee, will meet next week Monday through Thursday for a planning meeting called the “Fourth Plenum.”

The meeting reminds him of the US government, possibly on the verge of his own the longest stop in history, that China is a big believer in planning. Beijing held the strategy definition meeting twice every decade since the 1950s to rally the country around specific social and economic goals.

This year, China promoted its achievements under the “14th Five-Year Plan” despite US pressure on technology and trade.

The upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” is particularly critical as China has set even longer-term ambitions. by 2035said Zong Liang, a former chief researcher at the Bank of China. By then, China intends to do so boost the gross domestic product per capita to the middle range of developed countries, while achieving “major advances” in key technologies.

But that’s getting ahead of the immediate challenges policymakers will discuss next week: Navigating the U.S.’s increased technology restrictions. weak domestic demand.

Instead of announcing sweeping changes, Beijing is likely to double down “reforms” to boost domestic demand, from reducing regional trade barriers within China to expanding visa access, Zong said.

Following a recent surge in support for high-tech industries, Beijing is likely to have promised more support of own cultivation semiconductors, artificial intelligence e humanoid robots. Full details are not expected until the annual parliamentary meeting in March 2026, although reading from next week’s meeting should provide an early insight into the exact priorities.

“The technology part of the (plan) should focus on two things: artificial intelligence, where the adoption rate in key areas should reach 90% by 2030; and basic scientific research, which remains far behind the official target,” Tianchen Xu, senior economist for Asia for the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note.

At a time when the United States is reducing its climate commitments, China has the next five years to fulfill its commitment to start reducing carbon emissions after 2030.

So far, China is lagging behind in its goal of reducing its emissions rate, Xu said. “We believe that achieving this goal is still possible, but it would require more concerted efforts in reforming the electricity market and removing emissions-intensive industries.”

These include China’s increased role in global supply chains after joining the World Trade Organization and Beijing’s decision to crack down on the real estate sector. Hu now expects another major turning point as exports cool, following his own recent resistance despite US tariffs.

And of course, China’s electric vehicle ambitions have shaken up the global auto industry. But Beijing also fell short in several “Made in China 2025“goals that were announced in 2015.

The domestically built C919 passenger jet, for example, continues to rely on American and European components.

Then there is the growing concern that China’s emphasis on manufacturing without sufficient domestic demand is forcing many companies to race to the bottom. The resulting oversupply flooded world markets with cheap products, squeezing the industrial base of other countries and prompting threats of tariffs, not only from the US, but also from Mexico e the EU.

Beijing’s line is that countries should not blame China and instead share technology by playing to each nation’s respective strengths.

Some countries, including Russia and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that met in Tianjin last month, have shown interest in adopting China’s technology, which is often cheaper than American or European alternatives. DeepSeek, for example, undercut OpenAI in both operating costs and affordability.

But other countries may see China’s rise as a threat. Washington has tightened export controls and expanded tariffs as Beijing continues to challenge US dominance in key industries. China’s economic expansion, meanwhile, continues to threaten Washington’s dominance as the world’s largest economy.

Hence the Catch-22 in China’s goals: Beijing has stressed the need to balance national security with development. The country is also interested in prioritizing self-preservation and domestic stability.

Next week, China’s leaders will signal how they hope that seemingly contradictory mix of ideals will play out, before seeing if Xi meets Trump in South Korea later this month.

China’s stock market rose on Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell added some indicates that more interest rate cuts are on the cards.

The Hang Seng index rose 1.94%, while the CSI 300 added 1.47%. Both indices added up to 29% and around 17% respectively. Yields on China’s 10-year government bond lost around one basis point to 1.757%.

October 17 – 19: GT World Challenge Asia celebrates race series in Beijing for the first time as China seeks to create locally organized sporting events

October 20: China to release 3Q GDP, retail sales and other economic data for September

October 20 – 23: China to hold “Fourth Plenum” to discuss development goals for the next five years